I cannot tell if what is playing out the skies above Gaza and Southern Israel right now seems more like it is out of a dystopian science fiction novel or the Bible. Regardless, these videos of Hamas and affiliated militia groups’ rockets climbing their way into Israel territory, while Israeli Iron Dome Tamir interceptors arch their way into the air to pummel them, is both terrifying an somehow visually stunning at the same time. The only way I can sum up the sight of this real world deadly version of the arcade game Asteroids is “creepy.” The fact that both sides inability to solve their differences, even on the most superficial level, has led to continuous indiscriminate rocket barrages on innocent civilians and the fielding of an incredibly elaborate modern marvel of super-defense technology whose missiles literally costs 150 times more to expend than the threat they are designed to counter is mind-blowing. None-the-less, Iron Dome is an awe-inspiring piece of technology, a great hallmark of man’s ingenuity, albeit one that was born out of the absolute darkest of necessities.
It will be interesting to see what the final statistics look like concerning Iron Dome’s overall performance during this conflict. At this time the IDF is claiming that 300 rockets, out of over 1000 fired so far in the conflict, have been engaged by Iron dome, of which 85% have been successfully intercepted. Keep in mind that Iron Dome only engages targets that are deemed a threat to populated areas and are within its engagement envelope. The statistics reported by the IDF would also correlate with the stated performance over the short history of the weapon system, although these statistics can be skewed for both technical and even political reasons as we learned of the MIM-104 Patriot’s performance during the first Gulf War. Still, just by looking at the incredible videos posted below, and many other accounts, the claim of an 80+% kill rate seems plausible.
Blowing through hundreds of rounds of missiles that cost as much as a loaded Mercedes SUV each may not be the best way of countering the over-border rocket threat to Israel. Northrop Grumman is already offering a laser based system, called “Skyguard” that is proposed to provide higher kill probability performance and even faster engagement capability, all at around $1000 a shot. The Skyguard co
ncept also has the capability to shoot down surface to air missiles at airports, allowing even for dual capabilities (counter rockets and artillery and shoulder fired surface to air missiles) in places like Israel where both threats persist. The system itself would, like Iron Dome, cost hundreds of millions of dollars field and time to fully develop, although Northrop Grumman says it could be fielded in a limited form in under two years. At the time Israel says it is sticking with improving Iron Dome, not that they could really afford another systems such as Skyguard even if they wanted it. Like its Iron Dome cousin, the vast majority of funding for Skyguard would have to come from the United States. Regardless, speed of light counter rocket, artillery and mortar (C-RAM) countermeasure technology is clearly the future of this segment of defense weaponry, and if the threat persists the technology will eventually make its way into the IDF’s arsenal.
Israel’s offensive, dubbed “Security Pillar,” is clearly aimed at reducing the threat posed by contraband rockets fired out of the Gaza Strip as well as “removing” key Hamas and affiliated militant groups’ lieutenants from the chain of command. This operation may have actually begun some weeks ago with the strike on a series of shipping containers stored in the center of a munitions plant in Khartoum, Sudan, thought to house Iranian provided longer-range Fajr-5 rocket components destined for Gaza. As the rockets continue to fly and the damage and body count rises it seems that both sides are on the brink of a protracted conflict should Israel begin a ground assault on Gaza. 
It is unclear exactly what such an escalation would accomplish on a short-term basis aside from giving the IDF the ability to hit targets that are deemed of too high a risk to strike from the air when it comes to innocent causalities. Known rocket launching sites are monitored regularly and fired upon after a launch occurs, although it is said the Hamas rocketeers have vastly improved their abilities to launch such rockets clandestinely. There are reports of launch sites buried in desolate and urban areas, where the rockets are pre-staged and fired remotely. A ground offensive may be effective at finding some of these sites and neutralizing them but it would seem that once they are destroyed the area would have to be occupied to ensure that such emplacements are not simply rebuilt. Seeing as the upper echelon of Hamas’s rocket capability is now able to reach Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem, it may be the IDF’s priority to go specifically after this longer-range capability and neutralize it at all costs. This could include special forces raids on suspected rocket assembly facilities and smuggling routes. It is clear that having rockets rain down periodically on Israel’s economic center and capital would be incredibly crippling and if these larger, more advanced rocket systems continue to proliferate unchecked, nowhere in the country would be safe from their reach.
One could also look at an Israeli ground offensive as a way to break what is a siege of sorts on both sides at this time, a game of whose projectile stockpiles can last the longest. It is thought that Hamas has between 9,000 and 13,000 rockets on hand. Surely Israeli airstrikes have erased some of that inventory as over 1,000 have been shot in just the last week. So Hamas’s stockpiles could be comparatively famished but in no way have they been neutralized. Seeing as Iron Dome has shot at a third of the rockets fired from Gaza so far, if you extrapolate that out to half of Hamas’s inventory, roughly 5,000 rockets, that would mean that if things continue at their current rate Israel will have to field some 1500 Tamir interceptors to keep Iron Dome in action. Does Israel even have that many missiles available? So this could become a game of techno-siege if the conflict does not progress or digress, with both sides waiting to see who will deplete their projectile stockpiles first, one offensive (Hamas) and the other defensive (Isreal) in nature of-course. With Iron Dome out of action Hamas could claim an incredible victory over Israel’s military might, beating their magic shield for all the world to see, rockets once again falling on innocents without defense. On the other hand, if Israel won the siege, Hamas would have blown through almost their entire rocket stockpile, thus temporarily eliminating the threat going forward, allowing Israel to claim victory via completing its primary objective during this operation.
If this conflict morphs into a bloody urban battle through the streets of Gaza than the region may be plunged into wider conflict, with tensions already building in Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and even Jordan over this operation. With a much more formidable Hezbollah in Lebanon than what Israel faced about a half decade ago and a desperate Assad regime in Syria, that needs anything to distract the world from their own brutal war and to galvanize their politically fractured populace, a second front could erupt on Israel’s northern border. Additionally, both p
layers can be seen as proxies of Iran to some degree, which would love to keep Israel bogged down in conflict while it continues to develop its nuclear weapons program unmolested. On Israel’s southern border with Egypt, the stability of the Mubarak days are long gone. Now a the Muslim Brotherhood, who is closely affiliated with Hamas, runs the show and thus Israel’s increasingly fragile peace treaty with Egypt hangs perilously in the balance. Even Jordan to Israel’s east is doing what it can to ebb the currents of the Arab Spring, with anti-Israeli sentiment on the rise. In other words, if Israel plays its hand in too heavy of a fashion they may find themselves surrounded once again by actively hostile neighbors. Would such a dangerous geo-political situation be a worthwhile trade for temporarily lessening Hamas’s ability to lob rockets at Israeli population centers? I will let you judge that question for yourself…
On the aerial side of this campaign, it appears that the vast majority of the IDF/AF’s arsenal is participating in this operation, with special mention being made of F-15s and drones. On the drone side of the equation, the IDF released the video posted below depicting their surgical strike that killed the leader of Hamas’s military arm, Ahmed Jabri. Although news has reported this as a normal airstrike, I highly doubt it. This video shows a target being hit with absolute laser like accuracy by a munition with a very small yield, all while Jabri’s vehicle was moving through dense urban terrain and amongst tall structures. If this was an aerial strike than it was most likely carried out via a drone carrying a micro-munition of the sub 50lb class, not a Hellfire, TOW, or a laser guided bomb dropped by a fixed wing fighter aircraft. These munitions are actively being developed in the US to arm light drones and Israel has been rumored to have had this technology for some time. Alternatively this attack looks very much like a car bomb.
At the end of the day, Iron Dome, air strikes and ground invasions are all less than ideal measures that attempt to effect a problem that can only truly be solved politically. I believe that the majority of Israelis and Palestinians just want to live in safety while being able to take care of their families. Sadly, as the missiles fly and the jets scream into the sky both sides will only become more polarized towards one another. A long-lasting peace in that troubled but ancient land may be out of grasp at the present moment, but the current situation is absolutely appalling. Let’s hope that both sides (yes it takes TWO PARTIES to negotiate a deal guys!) can somehow break through to the realization that the status quo is miserable and unsustainable. But even if Hamas did choose to stop 
the rocket barrages in exchange for certain conditions, could they actually enforce such a de-escalation, or would their own militant wing fracture and go rogue beneath them?
So many questions, so few answers. I think one thing is clear though at this point in the conflict: Those folks who are undoubtedly working incredibly hard keeping their Iron Dome batteries at peak performance will most likely be viewed in a similar light as the pilots that repulsed the Nazi onslaught during the battle of Britain. They, the US tax payer, and the defense industry have truly provided a shield, although still an imperfect one, over much of the most highly threatened territory in Israel, and as a result of doing so, lives are undoubtedly being saved. It is not that often that we get to see military hardware forever change the way certain aspects of conflicts are fought, but we may just be witnessing one of those moments now as an Israel newly equipped with Iron Dome technology faces a full frontal sustained rocket assault for the first time…
Incredible footage of Iron Dome engaging multiple targets simultaneously as Hamas rocketeers attempt to overwhelm the still adolescent countermeasure system:
I would say this was the real world version of missile command.
To have better and more realistic picture we should also account the unit cost and target value. If Hamas missiles cost 1$ each and each shot of Iron dorm costs 1$ even with 80% success rate (which I think is exaggerated) it would not be economical since for destroying 8 (8$) missiles you have spent 10$ which bankrupts you in the long run. In this case it seems each shot costs much more than target value and if that’s the case it is not a successful system.
“It’s not about money… it’s about sending a message.”
-TDK, read as Heath Ledger as the Joker.
In all seriousness, the success of this weapon system is not and should not be measured by an attempt to economically undercut the production of horribly inaccurate ‘missiles’. However, noting the overall success up to this point of the system, the cost of each tamir missile at this point would seem to be its greatest challenge moving forward.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missile_Command
Great work guys on setting me straight when it comes to the Atari age of gaming! Missile Command is RIGHT! I will change this.
On a related note to Tamir stockpiles and the siege aspect to this conflict: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20121118/DEFREG04/311180002/Rafael-Works-24-7-Meet-Demand-Iron-Dome-Missiles?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE
Makes you wonder if at some point peace might actually be the cheaper option for Israel. I can’t imagine Hamas’s stockpile of rockets will be depleted any time soon, at least certainly not before Israel runs out of interceptors, so what will the IDF have achieved?
I guess a decade of studying this conflict might have jaded me, but as long as Israel refuses to consider Hamas a partner for peace (to use Israeli PR terminology), nothing will change. Not until the Israelis realise that you make peace with enemies, not with friends. Then again, some of us believe quite strongly that the Israelis understand this perfectly, and know that if they chose to treat Hamas as they treat Fatah, they would have no excuse for continuing the economic blockade of Gaza, or indeed the occupation itself.
Before 2009, the Israelis often lamented the fact that the Palestinians were divided, and so a peace treaty with them wasn’t worth paper it was written on. After the Arab Spring, when Hamas and Fatah began their reconciliation, the story changed. Now Israel refused to negotiate with those who consort with terrorists (forgetting all too easily that Fatah were the terrorists only 25 years ago).
The reason for this change of heart? Well, it boils down to this: Israel can’t absorb the West Bank and Gaza without also assimilating the 5 million or so Palestinians living there. Their answer is to implement varying levels of discrimination throughout the area under Israeli control so that they retain a Jewish majority without having to cede the land. In Gaza, Palestinians have no Israeli rights, and live under permanent siege and economic blockade. In the West Bank, Palestinians have more freedom but still live under military law. In Israel proper, Israeli Arabs are discriminated against in practically all walks of life, but are allowed a vote.
It’s clearly morally as well as legally wrong to fire rockets indiscriminately into civilian areas. Yet where were our Western morals when those Gazans were being forcibly removed from Najd, the town that Sderot was built on? Where were they when the Israelis were denying imports of chocolate, pasta, pencils and children’s toys from entering Gaza, with the stated aim of “putting them on a diet” as Dov Weissglass so chillingly phrased it?
It worries me that the USA would rather fund Iron Dome than pressure Israel to enter peace negotiations. Iron Dome, besides being a life-saving defense, adds to the problem because it makes it easier for Israelis to forget that (amongst other things) they’re depriving 900,000 Gazan children of basic human rights.
Well said Will. The problem for Israel is it has two bad options:
1-To annex the Palestinian territory and either give citizenship to Palestinian or go toward a full and apparent apartheid. In the first case, the state of Israel as jewsh state will cease to exist. At the other hand, by implementing an apparent apartheid it will lose the support of west eventually (people will notice it eventually no matter how Zionist controlled media try to depict it in a different way.)
2-To accept a two country solution. In this case, Israel just postponing the eventual conflict. Israel is surrounded by Arabs, a Palestinian state would be very close to vital Israeli centers, Israel also have a growing Arab citizen (more than 20% now). A Palestinian country with many sympathizer inside Israel means an eventual war. However, this time with a well prepared state not with disorganized groups like Hamas.
I think in the long run, Israel will cease to exist as a Jewish state one way or another. They either have to accept the south Africa solution and live as a minority along with Palestinian or they should fight a long but not intense war until their (anf their allies) resources exhausted.
I’m assuming that laser batteries will replace interceptors in the next decade; that would dramatically change the economics. I’m also assuming that’s also the US’s interest in the program. Has there been any news in this area? All the DEW stuff I read is coming from the Navy.
A few comments on the article:
Ty, I don’t like you equating the two sides in this conflict. Hamas doesn’t allow for existence of Israel. There’s no middle ground for them and as such, no room for negotiation. It really isn’t that complicated. Any political solution, therefore, until such time as Hamas recognizes Israel’s right to exist is simply appeasement. So is this latest cease-fire, which was pushed through by the US.
In claiming Israel would need 1500 interceptors, you assume that all palestinian rockets are made equal. That’s not the case. Generally higher range and better quality ones are used first during the escalation. With the exception of small cache of high-range rockets like Fajr-5. The quality and range tend to decrease. Hamas & friends also likely have many fewer than 5000 rockets left.
@Commenters
You’re completely miscalculating the costs involved here.
1) Most rockets that end up being intercepted by Iron-dome are mid-range Katyushas and Grads. They are substantially more expensive than $500 Quassams. The cost of the rockets still doesn’t take into account losses in transit.
2) It is somewhat pointless to compare the cost of the interceptor with the Hamas rockets. Instead, it should be compared with potential damage that would occur if Iron Dome wasn’t in place, both in terms of property and lives. In that case Iron Dome looks like a bargain. That’s to say nothing of economic benefits the perceived security provides.
3) Iron Dome’s main draw back is that its existence allowed Israeli government to become complacent in their Gaza strategy. Were it not for the Iron Dome, IDF would never have allowed Hamas to stockpile such an arsenal. Prevention is a much more sensible option, albeit more politically costly on intl. stage.
Algo, the same deal with the IRA, heavy rhetoric and violence, then a deal happened and the world changed for the better. If you are happy with tit for tat till the end of time then that is totally fine, I respect your views, I do not. The world is not black and white to me, that does not mean some shades of gray are not much darker than others. Just because I do not take a hawkish view of the situation does not mean its a 50%-50% deal when it comes to blame and victimhood (is that a word?). Sure, yeah they say they won’t recognize Israel’s right to exist, just like other nations have done in the past until change happens through hard sacrifices and negotiations. Look at the IRA for goodness sake! A deal was made because “irrational” people like me believed that it could be done despite the violence and the threats and history and rhetoric. The fact that Israel will not negotiate with Hamas on any level unless they recognize the their right to exist is in my opinion ridiculous, things can change, it needs to start with tiny steps.
-Some thoughts on your points:
1.) Losses in transit? Can you explain this, just need some clarity as I am interested in your thought. Also, I have not heard that the C-RAM software ignores shorter range rocket profiles, in fact i heard the system is kept busy with these over the larger Fajrs and Grads etc.
2.) That is fine, but still an extended conflict with Hezbollah and Hamas would see cost rise to massive levels. This is a factor it does not mean that it is game-ender etc. Keep in mind the US has footed the majority of the bill for IRON DOME. I believe this was money well spent.
3.) The exact same thing can be said by the doves out there, that because a shield exists a political solution is not as necessary although it is the only way to truly end such attacks. Keep in mind by constant direct action you are only making Hamas politically stronger and raising another generation of citizens who seek the destruction of Israel. Do not discount this as top US and Israel defense officials have discussed the hearts and minds issue with great concern strategically over the long term
The Army has a program too I think, probably a funding issue, I know the Navy is after it with block I coming to a ship near you fairly soon that is capable of shooting down light aircraft and drones.
Will- Interesting view point, good thoughts and analysis here. As to what Israel is truly depriving Gaza citizens of is debatable for some, lots of info out there is inaccurate. Still, maybe a show of good faith (small moves first) would be to really look at the embargo and see what can be improved without greatly increasing the danger to Israeli citizens.
I think Iron Dome was a good investment, this conflict would have been much bloodier if it had not existed, some see that as a bad thing though.
Blocking kids toys (if that is true) is much less of a human rights infraction than lobbing indiscriminate killing devices at civilians daily. What would the US do if San Diego came under rocket fire daily from Mexico? Its a simplification of the situation but still may help calibrate the comparative compass a bit no?
I do not see Israel ceasing to exist, but I do see a plummeting quality of life for their citizens over time if something is not done.
very good