THE WATER IN THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ IS GETTING CLOSE TO BOILING POINT

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45981376/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.Tw_DevkfjDl

Everything in my editorial about Iran’s very real threat to close the Straits of Hormuz has now been verified directly by the Pentagon. They can do it and it will not be a clean operation getting such a blockade dismantled, not by a long shot. The US is now warning Iran directly that such an act would be absolutely intolerable. With crippling sanctions in place, even more on their way, and unemployment at catastrophic levels, the Ayatollahs and political leadership will have to do something to galvanize national sentiment in an attempt to refocus angst outward instead of inward. Further, when you have a force that is highly motivated (as in the IRGC) and utilizes relatively low-tech weaponry that is fairly easy to replace, the decision to sacrifice it in order for the political leadership to stay in power is not a hard choice to make, as it guarantees real results at a low opportunity cost. An old (I believe Persian) proverb goes something like this; “if you trap a cat in a room you better leave the door open.” In other words if the Iranian Government is backed into a corner it will act in order to live to rule another day, no matter how ghastly the consequences.

My editorial from a few weeks back, more relevant now than ever:

http://aviationintel.com/2012/01/03/playing-chicken-with-the-worlds-oil-supply-what-shutting-down-the-straits-of-hormuz-really-would-mean/

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4 Responses to THE WATER IN THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ IS GETTING CLOSE TO BOILING POINT

  1. Sanem says:

    hi,

    I very much like your blog
    on the current Iranian crisis, which I take extremely serious, a tactic no one seems to mention for Iran are frogmen as a way of planting weapons

    now I understand that mobile vessels are hard for a swimmer to catch up with, but I figure they’re also extremely hard to detect underwater, and could use civilian ships to deploy and be picked up again, or possibly submarines, so they could start close enough to American ships

    a small, concentrated charge should be able to do serious enough damage, and will be light to move underwater. especially when aimed at the propellers, it would be a potentially effective and cheap weapon

    • aviationintel.com says:

      Sanem, I think this is always a threat to ships in port, but usually US ships remain moving and thus unpredictable when underway. Now midget subs, thats another story.

  2. Sanem says:

    the problem is that any military form of attack will immediatly result in counter-attacks, both from the West and the Arabian countries. Libya must have been an excellent warm up for that

    what is more, it would give the US enough political support to overthrow the Iranian government

    but if they use insurgent tactics, akin to supporting Hezbollah and the Taliban, the attack can’t be traced directly back to them (although I doubt the US will need much more incentive to attack). frogmen are the closest thing to naval insurgents I can think off (that and piracy, but that’d be hard to pull off there)

    • aviationintel.com says:

      Sanem-
      Agreed, such a conflict could spin out very fast into a wider war.

      “Political support to overthrow the Iranian government” Do you mean subversively or via ground forces or? What type of regime change strategy would be palatable to the world at such a point in your opinion?

      So you would see Iran sending in divers to attack vessels instead of a blockade or? Elaborate please.

      ty

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